“Mr. President, it isn't that we haven’t tried. We wanted very much to evacuate the settlements from Gaza. We set up a vast system and poured money into the project. It may be impossible.”
Is this what Prime Minister Ariel Sharon will say during a phone conversation with the White House in September?
Seventy days ahead of the planned pullout from Gaza and parts of the West Bank - and the withdrawal still seems far away.
The recent barrage of Qassams that slammed into Gush Katif settlements has already caused newly appointed IDF Chief of Staff Dan Halutz to say, “There will not be a pullout under fire.”
And the fire is only increasing.
What will happen when the casualties are not only Palestinians and Chinese foreign workers? Would the IDF enter the game at that point?
As of today, Gush Katif’s hard core is unified in its anti-disengagement stance. The religious Zionism rabbis are providing the spiritual support, and the orange ribbons are steadily spreading throughout the country and boosting the Right's confidence.
The settler leadership has a clear interest in turning August 15 into a nightmare for Sharon. The extremists still believe in a “miracle” that would prevent the evacuation, while the more moderate right-wing activists adhere to tactical considerations - "make them not want to mess with us" in another pullout, in the West Bank.
National Security Advisor Giora Eiland warned against creating “an impression of a mess” in all matters related to the handling of evacuees. Indeed, only a few dozen settler families have turned to the Disengagement Office, which is not delivering the goods.
Support for pullout dropping
Settler leaders are playing the democratic game, including negotiations on the Nitzanim plan and a legal battle, but they are simultaneously backing the activist camp, or the road-blockers, who embitter the lives of the drivers and make certain the anti-pullout campaign remains in the headlines, usually with the assistance of the religious media.
The majority of Gush Katif residents will apparently settle for a passive struggle, but meanwhile the Baruch Marzels and Itamar Ben Gvirs (far right activists,) who are expected to wage a violent battle against the evacuation, are “fortifying their positions.” And we have yet to mention the religious Chabad members, who have already started blocking roads and are determined to join the struggle.
And what is the situation among the Israeli public? It is quite surprising. Surprisingly, perhaps due to the Disengagement Office’s failure or the touching stories that pour in from Gush Katif, polls show support for the pullout plan is gradually dropping.
It is enough to listen to Finance Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s repeated warnings regarding the implementation of the disengagement. Could it be that he is sensing something?
70 days prior to the disengagement, and my scenario is not an optimistic one. A long, bloody struggle is expected on all fronts. Maybe then we will get the answer to the million-dollar question: How badly does Sharon want the disengagement?
